According to Fangraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average stat (DEF), which attempts to measure a player’s value relative to others at his position and relative to other positions, Jones’ DEF is 278.8, first among all outfielders to ever play the game of baseball. Jones’ DEF is eons ahead of second place Willie Mays’ DEF, which is a mere 100 runs lower at 170.1. The gap between Jones’ 278.8 DEF and Mays’ 170.1 DEF is larger than the gap between Mays’ DEF and 27th-placed Chet Lemon’s 63.3 DEF. And Baseball Reference agrees with Fangraphs—they credit Jones with 234.7 runs saved from fielding, first among all outfielders ever.Read more "The Case for the Hall: Andruw Jones"
Some people prefer to elect folks who had long careers only, but Walker was so good during his prime that the fact that he only played for 17 years should not come back to bite him. JAWS, which is a metric that takes a player’s career rWAR and averages it with their 7-year peak rWAR gives Walker a 58.7 JAWS. The average Hall of Fame right fielder has a JAWS of 57.8, which is right around what Walker has. Keep in mind that WAR already penalizes Walker for his home ballpark, so these numbers include an adjustment for Coors. I don’t like to use WAR as the be-all end-all stat, but it’s good to use as a benchmark and Walker measures up perfectly.Read more "The Case for the Hall: Larry Walker"
A 2010 study conducted by Dave Allen over at The Baseball Analysts suggested that all else equal, pitchers should try to avoid throwing their changeups to same-handed hitters and should be more willing to throw their changeups to opposite-handed hitters. 2010 was nearly a decade ago and baseball statistics, technology, and data manipulation have come quite far since then, so we figured we would investigate Allen’s claim that a changeup thrown to an opposite-handed hitter should be more effective than one thrown to a same-handed hitter. Our findings were unexpected.Read more "Time to Change it Up: An Examination of Changeup Usage and Effectiveness from 2015-2018"
As a lifelong Mets fan, I know it’s foolish to ever advise Mets fans to get their hopes up. I’ve lived through Game Seven of the NLCS in 2006, the collapses in both 2007 and 2008, and the abomination that was the 2015 World Series—though, to be fair, it was a miracle that the Mets […]Read more "It’s Time for Mets Fans to Get Excited"
Kershaw has had back issues in his career (though he says they are no longer a problem), and he has missed significant time in each of the past three seasons due to various other injuries. From 2010-2015, Kershaw averaged just over 222 innings pitched per season. In the three seasons since, he has averaged fewer than 162 innings, meaning he has not thrown enough innings, on average, to qualify for the ERA title. Of the past three years, he has qualified for the ERA crown in just 2017. He led the majors in ERA that year, of course, but that’s beside the point. Kershaw is looking like a mortal.Read more "Breaking Down Clayton Kershaw’s Contract Option"
When David announced that he was going to be calling it quits after this season, I got a little bit choked up. That’s actually an understatement; I cried. Not only because he himself was crying while announcing his plan to retire the media, but also because I feel connected to David. No, I have never met him (although I did once walk by him on the streets of Manhattan while I was walking home from Synagogue one night) but I think that speaks volumes to the power of sports. More on that later, though.Read more "I Love You, David"
Fangraphs is currently giving the Dodgers a 72.3% chance to make the playoffs and a 58.5% chance of winning the NL West. FiveThirtyEight doesn’t like the Dodgers nearly as much, giving them just a 56% chance to make the playoffs a 45% chance to win the division.
The discrepancy between the two models is why we play the games; these are contests between two groups of nine humans, and anything can happen in baseball.Read more "A Look at the National League Playoff Picture"